Omar Perez
June 1 marked the official start of hurricane season, and it also happened to be the day of the virtual Caribbean Climate Outlook forum, where experts from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency discussed forecasts and preparations for the region.
Forecasters anticipate an average Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine of which could become hurricanes. The past three years have seen a La Nina pattern that is conducive to increased tropical activity, but scientists are predicting a reversal to an El Nino trend, which typically increases upper-level winds in the Atlantic and can inhibit hurricanes.
While that is encouraging news for the Caribbean, forecasters are also predicting an increase in heat waves and hotter nights as well as intense rain and flash flooding in some regions until November.
'Worse than usual'
Heat waves could match or exceed those experienced in the region in 2016 and 2020. The entire Caribbean could see higher-than-average night temperatures through November, and at least 15 days and possibly more than 30 days of heat waves.
It's happening already: Last week, Puerto Rico's feel-like temperature reached 125 degrees, according to the National Weather Service.
"Heat is the one factor we are very confident will be worse than it usually is during the summer," said Cedric Van Meerbeeck, climatologist from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology.
With the increase in heat comes higher-than-average ocean temperatures and humidity, setting the stage for increased precipitation. While November will see reduced tropical cyclone activity and decreasing temperatures in the Caribbean, the potential remains high for flooding rains, Van Meerbeeck said. Until August, regions including the Bahamas, Barbados, most areas in the Greater Antilles, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Windward Islands have a high potential for intense rains and flash flooding.
"Flash flooding is one of the hazards we'll be monitoring closely and that you should prepare for," he said.
Roche Mahon, social scientist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, advised those in the tourism sector to not only to closely monitor weather advisories but to increase cooling and hydration needs for visitors. From September to November, typically the peak of hurricane season, Mahon said forecasters anticipate possible disruptions to airline schedules, and tourism infrastructure including airports, roads and bridges from either a possible hurricane or excessive rain, which can trigger flash floods and mudslides.
Ecological impact
On what is likely the one upside to a wetter season, more precipitation could lead to a better ecotourism experience, as increased rainfall gives way to more lush rainforests.
But the increased sea temperature is also highly likely to cause coral reef bleaching, Caribbean Tourism Organization chairman Kenneth Bryan said in his opening remarks.
Several islands are taking steps to offset reef damage. Saba and St. Eustatius have plans to reforest areas whose vegetation has been stripped bare because of land erosion caused by intense rain. That, in turn, affects near-shore coral reef ecosystems. In St. Vincent and the Grenadines as well as St. Lucia, the nonprofit organization Clear Caribbean and its partners have farmed and planted more than 10,000 corals in the past 15 months. In St. Vincent, 85% of the transplanted coral survived.
But there is only so much mitigation that humans and technology can provide.
"We face very real impacts ranging from dry spells and droughts affecting our water supplies and resources, heat waves affecting the health of our tourism employees and visitors alike, rising sea levels accelerating beach erosion and thereby increasing the vulnerability of tourism facilities, many of which are located on low-lying, coastal areas," Bryan said.