When Amnesty International caused a stir in 2019 by issuing a travel warning for visitors to the U.S. due to rampant gun violence, gun-related deaths had yet to reach the level they did in 2021.
That year, a record 48,830 people died from gun-related injuries in the U.S. and the rate of gun deaths per 100,000 people, 14.6, was the highest since the early 1990s, according to the Pew Research Center.
Amnesty's warning was pointed criticism of the U.S. government, which it called "unwilling to ensure protection against gun violence." Mass shootings have become a daily part of life in the U.S., one that is not lost on travelers from around the world.
What's not clear is if these incidents have any real impact on inbound tourism.
Every year during the U.S. Travel Association's annual IPW conference, at least one international journalist tells the assembled travel leaders that fear of being shot is a deterrent for some people who would otherwise visit the U.S. and asks what is being done about gun violence.
Geoff Freeman, CEO of U.S. Travel, responded to the question this year, which was posed by a Canadian journalist, saying that "public safety and travel are inextricably linked."
"If there are concerns about public safety, then one way or another we have to address that," Freeman said.
Freeman later said during an interview that recent research suggests gun violence is a "growing concern" among potential travelers to the U.S., but that he's been told by Brand USA that "there is a gap between what people say and what they do."
Seth Fallik, an associate professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida Atlantic University, said that the decision-making process for international travelers is no different than it is for Americans going abroad.
Any perception of a heightened risk of gun violence would naturally deter some travelers from visiting areas deemed higher-risk.
"We're thinking about the safety of a place when we travel," he said. "And so are folks looking to come to the United States."
Brand USA's sentiment survey, which is conducted periodically with consumers in its largest inbound travel markets, indicates that fear of gun violence and mass shootings is not high among the reasons people don't travel to the U.S.
The top reasons are economic concerns; inflation and currency; and roadblocks such as visa-processing issues.
But just as the U.S. State Department posts travel alerts and warnings about other countries, various nations warn their citizens that there is a heightened risk of gun violence in the U.S. For example, Canada says "the rate of firearm possession in the U.S. is high ... incidences of mass shootings occur, resulting most often in casualties.
Although tourists are rarely involved, there is a risk of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Familiarize yourself on how to respond to an active shooter situation."
New Zealand warns travelers that there is a higher incidence of violent crime and firearm possession in the U.S. than in New Zealand and that in many states it is legal for citizens to openly carry firearms in public. "Active shooter incidents occur in the United States," the warning says.
The fact that tourists are not targeted in high-profile shootings here is an important factor for British travelers, said Sean Tipton, spokesperson for the Association of British Travel Agents.
"The thing that does worry people is if they feel that they are specifically targeted as tourists," he said. He pointed to the 2015 shooting at a resort in Tunisia that killed 30 British holidaymakers, which dampened British visitation to Tunisia for years.
When it comes to the U.S., he said, if there's a high-profile shooting, it will make British news, but the general perception is that they know the chance of being a victim of gun violence is very small.
"People tend to be a bit quite realistic in the U.K. about potential risk," Tipton said. "I mean, something can happen to you anywhere, bluntly. But I don't think the U.S. is seen as the dangerous country."
Tipton also said that people tend to have short memories, something that Florida Atlantic University's Fallik said is evident in visitor reaction to mass shootings.
"If the event grips the nation, people may choose not to come to that area in the immediate aftermath," he said. "That's short term; three to six months is when we really start to see tourism and travel to those areas go back to normal levels."
No long-term visitor downturn occurred in Las Vegas after a gunman killed 60 concertgoers in late 2017 from his hotel room on the Strip, and Orlando didn't suffer a pullback after 49 people were killed at a gay nightclub in the city in 2016 -- in fact, the city saw more visitors that year than the one prior. In 2019, 6.5 million international tourists visited Orlando, more than 1 million of them from the U.K.
"If you look at the demographic of people going to America, in particular Florida, they are families," Tipton said. "They are families taking young children. If they felt unsafe, they wouldn't go."